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专访林园：不会因净值大幅波动而焦虑科技行业机会和科技股机会是两回事_我的网站

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Soybean Photo: VCG
China continues to be the leading destination for Brazilian soybeans, and the Brazilian soybean industry wants to further deepen this relationship, expecting historically high volumes in the coming months, the Brazilian Association of Soybean Growers (Aprosoja Brasil) told the Global Times on Friday.
Brazilian soybean exports to China have remained very strong. China imported 12.08 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in June, up 13.7 percent year-on-year, while imports from the US fell 20.9 percent year-on-year to 1.27 million tons, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
China imported 34.75 million tons of soybeans from Brazil during the period, up 9.1 percent year-on-year, according to Aprosoja Brasil. "Based on arrivals and customs clearance in China, there was clear growth," the association said.
According to the official data platform Brazilian Comex Stat, which records shipments at origin, 48.32 million metric tons were destined for China from January through June, largely unchanged from 48.41 million metric tons during the same period in 2025.
The difference between the two datasets mainly reflects timing and methodological differences between the recording of departures, cargoes in transit, arrivals and customs clearance.
Aprosoja Brasil said that the broader economic conclusion is the same: "Trade flows remained historically strong, China continued to be the leading destination for Brazilian soybeans, and Brazil's total soybean exports reached a first-half record of 69.57 million metric tons."
For farmers, strong export volumes help support the marketing of the crop, although record exports do not automatically mean record farm margins, said the Brazilian industry association.
China is the world's largest soybean importer. Imported soybeans are mainly used for oil production and animal feed. In terms of trading partners, China mainly imports soybean-related products from Brazil, the US, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada.
Brazil ranks among the world's leading soybean producers and exporters, with China being its largest export market for soybeans, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Commenting on the significance of the Chinese market, Aprosoja Brasil said "China is absolutely strategic to Brazil's soybean industry," citing data showing that in 2025, China purchased 85.4 million metric tons, representing approximately 79 percent of all Brazilian soybean exports.
The two countries also have a highly complementary trade relationship. For Brazilian farmers, Chinese demand provides scale, market liquidity and greater capacity for long-term planning, said the Brazilian soybean industry association. For China, Brazil offers large, competitive and reliable supplies, as well as a crop calendar that complements production in other supplying countries.
Previously, policy shifts, such as US unilateral tariff measures, have caused disruption for US soybean farmers and other agricultural producers, Lü Xiang, research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
At the same time, China has been diversifying imports, including from Brazil and Argentina, to reduce risks from trade uncertainty, according to Lü.
Aprosoja Brasil noted that this partnership should not be seen merely as a temporary consequence of trade disputes involving third countries. Instead, it is a structural and mutually beneficial relationship, based on the complementarity between Brazil's production capacity and China's large demand for food, animal feed and protein, the industry group said.
Looking ahead to the soybean trade for the rest of the year, Aprosoja Brasil said that they are positive, while having a prudent mindset. Brazil has completed the harvest of a record soybean crop of approximately 180.6 million metric tons, and Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 116.3 million metric tons in 2026, which would also be a record, the association said.
"Brazil therefore has sufficient supply to continue serving the Chinese market strongly in the coming months... We expect historically high volumes, although not necessarily growth every single month, because soybean trade is seasonal and Northern Hemisphere supplies become more prominent during the second half of the year," it said.
。　　毕业于汉中市卫生学校西医专业，深圳大学电子技术与计算机专业，曾就职于深圳红会医院。自1989年进入证券市场，至今已拥有逾30年投资经验。　　个人或所在机构曾获2024东方财富风云际会“年度品牌价值私募基金公司”、2023东方财富风云际会“年度卓越价值私募基金公司”、私募排排网2020年常青树私募基金经理等业内奖项。　　熬过极端分化行情涨跌轮回本是股市规律　　第一财经：最近，我们看到以林园投资为代表的一众“老风格”基金，迎来净值的大幅修复。回想上半年科技极端分化行情带来的压力和质疑，行情走到现在，您有“松口气”的感觉吗？　　林园：没有，我完全没有这种感觉。我的感受，和普通投资者、和市场整体的感受完全不一样。我也没觉得市场有多大问题，也不觉得大家过度紧张、没必要焦虑。

B | 这都是多年做投资养成的习惯。

C | 这种市场走势以前反复出现过，每隔几年就会来一次。我们心里很清楚，这就是股市的规律，很简单：涨多了就会跌，跌多了自然就会涨。　　站在几十年长周期视角当前尤其是消费板块估值处于低位　　第一财经：您曾称当下是“几十年难遇的低估区间”，所以您如何定性7月以来这轮非科技股的修复？究竟是超跌反弹，还是趋势拐点？　　林园：拉长几十年时间来看，现在的估值确实是非常便宜的。这个估值不是单看股价，还要看投资回报率、股息率这些指标。

D | 结合现在的经济环境综合去看，才得出的这个判断。　　第一财经：您所说的股价几十年低位，单单是指非科技股？还是涵盖了整个大盘指数、各类宽基指数？　　林园：我主要说的是我们布局的标的，就是大家口中的传统行业、消费类上市公司。　　科技行业前景广阔但个股高淘汰率是行业固有属性　　第一财经：您在7月的直播中提到，科技股存在“100%风险”，超出了自身能力圈。那您如何看待本轮科技股反弹？毕竟不少科技龙头个股的业绩表现还是很能打的。　　林园：我说科技股有100%风险，不只是现在，长期来看，科技股几乎一直都是百分百的风险属性。科技行业看着热闹，但真正能长期站稳脚跟、最终走出来的公司少得可怜，基本可以忽略不计。

E | 　　第一财经：那在科技赛道中，您认为有哪些机会值得关注，又有哪些陷阱需要规避？　　林园：科技赛道的机会肯定很大，这是明摆着的。AI、机器人这些都是颠覆性的变革性行业，机会毋庸置疑，现在行业也才刚刚起步。但我说的百分百风险，是长期维度的风险，不是说当下正在反弹的这些个股马上就会出问题。　　第一财经：所以您的核心逻辑是，要区分科技行业的赛道机会和具体个股的投资机会？　　林园：对的。行业空间确实巨大，但最后真正能跑出来的公司，不一定就是你现在持有的、市场热门的这些标的。就像你说的，有些科技龙头现在业绩看着很好，但它没有真正的壁垒，随时会被新的技术、新的公司替代。　　第一财经：科技行业整体向好、个股却分化严重，这种撕裂感，主要是估值、股价、基本面的问题，还是其他原因导致的？　　林园：这和估值一点关系都没有，也不是市场讲故事的问题，就是行业本质决定的。核心就是新旧更替太快，老的企业很容易被淘汰。科技公司特别烧钱，业绩、产能全靠持续砸钱堆出来。一旦市场需求、技术路线变了，之前所有的投入基本就是打水漂，能长久存活、沉淀下来的科技企业非常少。

F | 　　不追逐创新药高弹性医药投资优先押注慢病确定性　　第一财经：本轮非科技股反弹冷热不均，其中医药板块修复尤为亮眼。您持仓大多是医药传统标的，而创新药个股的反弹弹性明显更大，您是否会考虑在医药板块内部切换投资风格？　　林园：医药各个细分方向我们都有布局，但核心仓位，还是集中在慢性病赛道。

G | 现在的医学手段，对大多数慢性病都有成熟的对症治疗方法。我们重点布局的，是慢性病衍生出来的各类并发症相关领域。对应的药品、保健品，核心作用就是延续患者的生命、维持身体基本机能。很多七八十岁的老人，身体血管、各项机能都老化了，已经没法做手术，只能靠保守治疗维持生命。我们主要投的，就是这类能实实在在延续生命、有确定性价值的标的。

H | 　　第一财经：但您不觉得部分创新药股的股价、业绩更有爆发力，投资故事也更有吸引力吗？　　林园：可能是我的固有偏好。医学能治病，但改变不了人的衰老规律，所以我们对创新药一直比较谨慎。我们选赛道，最看重确定性。现在大家生活水平提高，肥胖人群越来越多，很多慢性病都是肥胖引发的。

I | 所以我们重点关注减重、肥胖相关的赛道，只要体重降下来，很多毛病自然就好转了。　　有色消费以及红利和自由现金流ETF迎来历史性机会　　第一财经：您如何看待有色、消费等传统板块，以及近期资金持续增配的红利ETF、自由现金流ETF这类指数产品？　　林园：我觉得这些都是历史性的机会，估值非常便宜，全都有投资机会。这些板块算是市场里的难兄难弟，整体逻辑都差不多。　　市场纠结源于贪念价值投资要平常心看待波动　　第一财经：今年无论是散户还是高净值投资者，整体心态都十分矛盾纠结：有人追逐赛道轮动，有人坚持均衡配置，有人坐等市场高低切换。大家既担忧AI新赛道估值过高，又怕科技股持续走弱、传统板块业绩无法带动指数。

J | 您怎么看待当下市场的投资心态？　　林园：说到底就是人的贪性导致的，贪心让人患得患失、想东想西，来回纠结。我们做价值投资，就是抓核心逻辑、稳住心态。真正吃透了价值投资，面对市场波动就平常心看待。就算短期行情不如意、账户有波动，也没什么大不了的，放平心态就好，实在不行就休息、睡觉，不用纠结。　　第一财经：无论是基金配置还是个股投资，当下行情下，哑铃策略、均衡配置的思路还管用吗？　　林园：这套策略肯定是有用的。

K | 但对我、对我们公司来说，投资思路是抓重点、抓核心大事。　　我不追求每一轮行情都赚钱、次次都要高收益。一辈子抓住一次顶级的大机会，就足够了。

L | 　　下半年科技价值难共振两大赛道或将维持对立走势　　第一财经：您如何看待下半年市场行情？科技赛道和价值赛道，是否会走出更加均衡的走势？　　林园：看下半年短期行情，科技和价值这两大赛道还是对立走势，不是共振、相辅相成的关系。现在全球市场都是这个格局：科技股短期走的是牛市，传统价值股还处在熊市区间，我们一直重点警惕科技赛道的风险。

M | 　　投资立足人性与价值常识坚守常识和基本逻辑才是关键　　第一财经：上半年极端的K型分化行情，是否颠覆了您对科技、价值、风控的固有判断，是否让您对投资逻辑产生新的思考？　　林园：我过往的经验就是，但凡我听市场的各种声音、想着改变自己的固有逻辑，最后基本都是错的，甚至差点出大问题。投资归根结底就是人性和价值常识，这两样东西不会变。我也会复盘行情、思考市场变化，但最后结论都一样：核心逻辑不能变、持仓不能乱动。　　港股整体仍然被低估消费医药标的性价比凸显　　第一财经：您如何看待当下港股的估值水平和投资机会？　　林园：港股现在整体还是很便宜的，机会很不错。港股有很多贴近民生、消费的传统企业，现在都值得布局。尤其是港股医药，不少公司估值低、回报率处在历史高位，性价比非常高。港股和A股联动性很强，现在估值也基本持平。现在做港股的资金越来越多，但A股依旧是市场的核心主战场。